Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The economy is getting rid of "monetary dependency"

Discussion on whether people are willing to, China's economic transformation has already begun.  Economies in transition not only energy-saving emission reduction and adjustment of industrial structure, but to support and promote basic conditions for the past 30 years of rapid economic growth in China and the environment is undergoing major changes. at present, economic transformation first manifested in the Chinese economy is trying to get rid of the traditional "monetary dependence syndrome."  And other economic body compared to, China economic growth way first is currency promoting type of. has long, China relies on far fast Yu economic growth of currency supply volume to promoting economic growth. in China economic currency of course no ended zhiqian, excessive of currency put will was economic currency of and financial deepening of process by absorption, once economic currency of process ended, excessive of currency put on inevitable performance for assets price or prices of rose, formed assets bubble or inflation. For 30 years, China's economy has developed an over-reliance on bank credit funds, an increase of investments,
Investment by credit, into has basic of growth mode. for example, Shang century 80 generation so far, levels Government established of various trust company or investment company, are is to finger-bank credit funds, for local of Foundation facilities construction. history Shang, Central on local government financing problem has for has repeatedly cleanup and rectifying. but local government is wrong has on modified, modified has again. This description, wrong is not local government, wrong in we of economic development mode. no local Government constantly committed errors, annual accounted for investment total 25%-30  % How can infrastructure complete? how can the people in the world's largest developing countries enjoy advanced infrastructure comparable to the developed countries?  Problems on both sides, excessive currency investing is like blood for the Chinese economy is laid with an excess of nutrients, as well as accumulated problems. First of all, distorts the relationship between the total amount of money and real economy. total banking assets in China has more than 100 trillion yuan,
Past 10 years in the growth has seven to eight times times, almost is GDP of twice times half, in global main economic body in the row first. compared to United States bank assets is only GDP of 80% around, we of Bank too developed has. also, we of M2 total is GDP of 1.8 times times around, in global main economic body in the also ranked first. in accordance with the now of growth, both of multiples will continues to pulled large. Second, despite we annual added of credit total far Super added name GDP total, but entity economic still think deficiency money. currently, we annual added name GDP four to 5 trillion yuan, added actual GDP does not to 4 trillion yuan, but added commercial banks credit seven to 8 trillion yuan, members still think currency put had small, social funds surface had tight. this year and appeared has interest rate rose, and usury flooded and the SMEs funds chain fracture, status, this is by long-term excessive put habit of. even future 3-5 years, Every year we
Seven speed to 8 trillion yuan to launch, the money stock and multiple of GDP will continue to widen.  To corrected distorted of currency stock and GDP total of times than relationship, M2 of growth first must slow Yu name GDP of growth, then to slow Yu entity economic of growth, until annual added M2 of absolute volume is less than added name GDP, this needs long of process to completed. therefore, if wanted to from roots Shang governance China of inflation and assets bubble, that from now up on must long-term implementation partial tight of currency policy, excessive of currency put cannot then occurred has.  If money is no longer an excessive amount invested, with chronically tight monetary policy would lead to China's economic, financial and residential changes many aspects of the financing. First, generation dreams of Fortune ended. over the past 10 years of experience represented by the real estate of the Chinese people the unprecedented rise in asset prices, most asset prices have risen by several or even dozens of times, most city
City residents family property number times rose, a large number of various assets investment people into has must even millions of rich. assets price soaring factors is many, but excessive currency put still is first factors. Dang currency supply began long-term partial tight, assets price rose on will slow or stagnation, part assets price even will appeared fell. This two years people has feeling to do what assets investment are is difficult to make money has, holds real estate and stock, assets proportion had large of in the produced class wealth is shrink. This is normal of,  This process has only just begun. Second, dang currency supply began long-term partial tight, market interest rate will rose, distorted of market interest rate system will gradually corrected. money began "valuable" has. then, commercial banks if does not timely gradually release deposits interest rate, funds on will from Bank outflow. some financial organization and institutions lack of area (as rural and SMEs such as) on will appears loansharking flood. loansharking is interest rate marketing process in the of a performance

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